Treated and treatment-naive alcoholics come from different populations

Matching procedure. The top section of the figure presents the raw data for a matched pair of subjects [a 46-year-old male abstinent alcoholic (gray line) and a 34-year-old male treatment-naive alcoholic (orange line)], both of whom met criteria for heavy drinking at about 18 years of age. The middle section shows the two steps of the matching and alignment procedure. In the first step, the two subjects are aligned at their age of meeting the criteria for heavy drinking (this amounts to a shift of 4 months for the abstinent alcoholic subject), and that age is set to zero. In the second step, the data obtained for the abstinent alcoholic subject are truncated (red hash marks), so that they are followed for the same duration after criteria for heavy drinking were met as that for the treatment-naive subject. The bottom section shows the data after alignment and truncation.

Average dose for the period from the first heavy use to end of match period. In the matched period, the average alcohol dose was significantly lower in the treatment-naive subjects than in the treated subjects who eventually attained long-term abstinence (P<.01). In comparison with doses for male subjects, female subjects had lower doses (P<.05), but no group by sex interactions were observed. AbstAlc=Abstinent alcoholics; TxNaive=treatment-naive alcoholics.

Alcohol use duration for the period from the first heavy use to end of match period. In the matched period, the duration of alcohol use was lower for the abstinent alcoholics (AbstAlc) than for the treatment-naive alcoholics (TxNaive) (P<.01) owing to increased periods of abstinence in the treated subjects who eventually attained long-term abstinence. No sex or group by sex interactions were observed.

Alcohol use trajectories. When the trajectories of an abstinent alcoholic and a treatment-naive alcoholic overlap, it is indicated in red. The trajectories for female subjects are lower than those for male subjects. (Note the difference in scale between the sections of the figure for female versus male subjects.) After criteria for heavy drinking were met, the trajectories for abstinent alcoholics (gray lines) are higher than the trajectories for treatment-naive alcoholics (orange lines).